How it works

Six things, and you know the whole product. Today Predikon runs on demo funds — every mechanism below is live and real-money-grade.

1. 1

   Markets ask a real question

   Every market is a question with a verifiable answer — "Will X happen by Y?". Before trading opens, the resolution rules are locked in a binding clause (the DRS) you can read on every market page. Nobody, including us, can quietly change what counts as YES.

2. 2

   Prices are probabilities

   A YES share pays $1 if the answer is YES, $0 otherwise. If YES trades at 64¢, the market is saying "64% likely". Buy YES if you think the crowd is too low; buy NO if you think it's too high. Your maximum loss is what you paid — never more.

3. 3

   You trade against people, at live prices

   Orders match on a real order book; on quieter markets the house market-maker quotes both sides so there's always a price. The ticket shows your odds three ways (%, multiplier, American) and can size an order from a dollar budget.

4. 4

   Getting out is one tap

   Sell your position anytime at the best available price with one-tap close, or hold to resolution. Complete YES+NO pairs redeem for exactly $1 whenever you like.

5. 5

   Resolution is published, not proclaimed

   When the outcome is known, the ruling — with its evidence and who confirmed it — enters a tamper-evident public log, signed so you can verify it offline. Automated feeds can PROPOSE outcomes; only a human can confirm one.

6. 6

   Verify us — always

   The ledger's conservation is checked live on the Integrity Board; our own calibration record (how often our prices were honest) is public on the Accuracy page; and the sharp-money line shows where top-calibrated forecasters actually stand.